Can Overconfidence be Debiased by Low‐Probability/High‐Consequence Events?

During the first half of 2008, China suffered three natural disasters: a heavy snow storm, an outbreak of hand‐foot‐mouth disease, and a severe earthquake. The aim of the present study is to explore how low‐probability/high‐consequence events influence overconfidence. In Study 1, opportunity samples were obtained by recruiting residents in three different types of disaster‐hit areas to answer a peer‐comparison probability judgment questionnaire about 1 month after the corresponding disaster occurred. The performance of 539 participants in disaster‐hit areas was compared with that of 142 residents in a nondisaster area. The findings indicate that residents in disaster‐hit areas were less overconfident than those in the nondisaster area on both positive and negative events. In Study 2, we surveyed a total of 336 quake‐victims 4 and 11 months after the earthquake to examine whether the impact of disasters on overconfidence would decay with time. The resulting data indicate that the disaster victims became more overconfident as time elapsed. The overall findings suggest that low‐probability/high‐consequence events could make people less overconfident and more rational and seem to serve as a function of debiasing.     

和谐管理理论指导下的合法性与独特性动态平衡机制研究

针对组织制定发展战略时不可避免的合法性与独特性权衡问题,基于和谐管理理论,选取案例研究的方法,探究组织如何实现最低合法性基础上的最优独特性。研究表明:“系统性整体设计、和谐主题制定与调整、围绕和谐主题的谐则-和则体系优化及动态耦合”可作为组织实现最低合法性基础上的最优独特性的指导性研究框架。此外,阐述了西交利物浦大学处理“求同还是存异”问题的办学实践与该研究框架的融合,于整体化的视角提出了独特性与合法性的权衡过程是一个有限干预下复杂系统的设计和演化问题。     

偏股型开放式基金“赎回悖论”的动态特征及申购异象

本文对偏股型开放式基金赎回悖论进行了系统研究,修正了传统的单期静态"赎回悖论",采用超额收益来评价基金业绩,根据月度面板模型分析了业绩对基金赎回的多期、动态影响,实证表明:基金当期业绩存在较强"赎回悖论",但历史业绩并不存在"赎回悖论",基金的历史业绩越好越能促进资金流入,且赎回悖论仅存在于老基金。为了进一步探索"赎回悖论"动态性的根源,作者引入SVAR模型分别分析了申购、赎回对业绩的多期脉冲反应,发现投资者在赎回行为上表现出相当的理性,并不存在处置效应,"赎回悖论"的根源在于投资者申购行为的异常。投资者反向选择策略、投资者对新基金的偏好以及基金市场的快速扩张是造成申购异象的直接原因。     

基于扎根理论的强制性公民行为影响因素研究

探索强制性公民行为的影响因素,对于拓展相关理论和指导管理实践都十分有益。以扎根理论为主导工具进行研究,对强制性公民行为影响因素的概念模型进行了探索性研究,并得出了强制性公民行为影响因素的三大类属:个体因素、客体因素以及环境因素。研究结果还表明,个体因素在客体因素或环境因素对强制性公民行为的影响路径中起中介或调节作用;客体因素和环境因素对强制性公民行为的交互效应存在。     

我国研究型大学核心竞争力的评价指标体系研究

本文借用企业核心竞争力的理论,结合研究型大学的特点,设计出了一个用以评价、分析我国研究型大学核心竞争力的指标体系,利用AHP法与专家评判相结合的方法对指标体系进行了评价,并通过实例分析表明该指标体系和评价模型的通用性和科学性。     

Generalized median graphs and applications

We study the so-called Generalized Median graph problem where the task is to construct a prototype (i.e., a ‘model’) from an input set of graphs. While our primary motivation comes from an important biological imaging application, the problem effectively captures many vision (e.g., object recognition) and learning problems, where graphs are increasingly being adopted as a powerful representation tool. Existing techniques for his problem are evolutionary search based; in this paper, we propose a polynomial time algorithm based on a linear programming formulation. We propose an additional algorithm based on a bi-level method to obtain solutions arbitrarily close to the optimal in (worst case) non-polynomial time. Within this new framework, one can optimize edit distance functions that capture similarity by considering vertex labels as well as he graph structure simultaneously. We first discuss experimental evaluations in context of molecular image analysis problems—he methods will provide the basis for building a topological map of all 23 pairs of the human chromosome. Later, we include (a) applications to other biomedical problems and (b) evaluations on a public pattern recognition graph database. This work was supported by NSF grants CCF-0546509, IIS-0713489, and NIH grant GM 072131-23. The second author was also supported in part by the Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, UW-Madison and UW ICTR, funded through an NIH Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA), grant number 1 UL1 RR025011.     

基于离散选择模型的电信资费套餐选择行为研究

以大学生为例,采用离散选择模型对影响电信客户选择资费套餐行为的因素进行了研究。结果表明,运用嵌套Logit模型比多元Logit模型更能解释影响客户选择资费套餐行为的因素,品牌对客户是否选择中国移动和中国联通的影响大于是否选择中国电信的影响,应付通信费对客户是否选择中国联通和中国电信的影响大于是否选择中国移动的影响,并且中国联通和其他运营商的套餐之间具有高度的替代性。     

地理距离如何影响风险资本对新企业的投资

本文基于2004-2012年中小板和创业板披露的1021个风险资本投资案例,研究地理距离如何影响风险资本对新企业的投资。研究发现,与新企业之间的地理距离越远,风险资本对新企业的投资金额越少、投资时间越晚、投资后参与公司治理的可能性越低;企业规模可以减轻地理距离的负向影响;地理距离对风险资本的投资轮次影响不显著。风险资本投资明显存在本地偏好。进一步的检验表明,非核心发达地区的风险资本和国有风险资本具有更明显的本地偏好特点,投资受地理距离影响更大。     

知识员工反生产行为的结构及测量

运用问卷调研方法,通过4项子研究,探讨中国知识员工反生产行为的结构及其测量。子研究1运用归纳法将知识员工反生产行为归纳为8大类、66小类;子研究2编制知识员工反生产行为问卷,并对采集的数据进行探索性因素分析,发现知识员工反生产行为包括失德行为、抵制行为、钻空子行为、消极服从行为、保守知识行为、撒谎行为6个维度;子研究3运用验证性因素分析方法对数据进行分析,发现六因素结构拟合度最佳,内部一致性系数分析以及与效标变量的相关系数分析表明知识员工反生产行为问卷具有良好的信度和效度;子研究4进一步对六因素结构模型的稳定性进行验证。研究结果表明,知识员工反生产行为问卷可以作为未来的基本研究工具,而且对知识型企业也具有参考和借鉴价值。